|akarlinsky 1ebb0290b4 2021-05-12 Update||2 days ago|
|local_mortality||2 weeks ago|
|.gitignore||3 months ago|
|README.md||4 days ago|
|coverage_map_title_fixed.png||6 days ago|
|world_mort_plot_all.png||2 days ago|
|world_mortality.csv||2 days ago|
This repository contains country-level data on all-cause mortality in 2015–2021 collected from various sources, see below.
We are currently providing data for 94 countries and territories.
We welcome any contributions.
Preprint: Karlinsky & Kobak 2021, The World Mortality Dataset: Tracking excess mortality across countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250604
For the excess mortality analysis using this data see https://github.com/dkobak/excess-mortality.
For our sister-project of sub-national mortality data, see https://github.com/akarlinsky/world_mortality/tree/main/local_mortality
We collect the weekly STMF data for the following countries: Australia*, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Chile, Croatia, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland , Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, South Korea, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland, United Kingdom (England & Wales + Northern Ireland + Scotland), United States.
We do not use Taiwan data from STMF because the monthly data (see below) is more frequently updated.
United States data from 2017 onward are replaced with CDC 'predictions' that account for underreporting in recent weeks (see below).
For some European countries, STMF sometimes has more up-to-date (and backward revised) data than Eurostat, as it culls data from countries' NSOs. For each data point that exists in both datasets, we take the maximum between them as the final data.
* Australia's data (all years) is "Doctor Certified Deaths" rather than "All Registered Deaths". These constitute about 85%-90% of all deaths in Australia.
We collect the weekly data from Eurostat for the following countries: Cyprus, Malta, Montenegro, Romania: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/demo_r_mwk_ts/default/table?lang=en
2015, 2019 to 2020: Email correspondence with Albania Institute of Statistics.
2015 to 2020: Email correspondence with Andorra Department of Statistics.
See publication on Natural Movement: https://www.estadistica.ad/serveiestudis/noticies/noticia5913cat.pdf
Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia:
2015: UNData MBS (as crude death rates): https://unstats.un.org/unsd/mbs/app/DataView.aspx?tid=3&cid=31&yearfrom=2015&yearto=2015&p=A
2016 to 2017: http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?d=POP&f=tableCode%3a65%3bcountryCode%3a31&c=2,3,6,8,10,12,13,14&s=_countryEnglishNameOrderBy:asc,refYear:desc,areaCode:asc&v=1
2015 crude death rates were transformed to mortality counts by using the UNDATA Mid-Year Population estimate for Azerbaijan 2015 which is 9,649,000.
2021 Press release provides total deaths in January-February 2021. To transform to monthly counts, we dividied it by the ratio observed in 2020 between these two months.
2015 to 2020: UNData - http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?d=POP&f=tableCode%3a65%3bcountryCode%3a112%3brefYear%3a2015%2c2016%2c2017%2c2018%2c2019%2c2020&c=2,3,6,8,10,12,13,14&s=_countryEnglishNameOrderBy:asc,refYear:desc,areaCode:asc&v=1
2015 onward: Information obtained from The Bolivian Civil Registry - Servicio de Registro Cívico (SERECI).
We would like to thank G. J. Andrés Uzín P. & Luis Salas for providing us this information.
2015 to 2016: Email correspondence with Agency for Statistics of Bosnia & Herzegovina (BHAS).
2017 onward: BHAS Natural Population Change Quarterly: http://www.bhas.ba/Calendar/Category/14#tab-releases
2015 to 2019: Brazil Ministry of Health Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade (SIM): https://opendatasus.saude.gov.br/dataset/sistema-de-informacao-sobre-mortalidade-sim-1979-a-2019
2020 up to October: SIM 2020: https://opendatasus.saude.gov.br/dataset/sistema-de-informacao-sobre-mortalidade
2020 November up to 2021: Brazilian Civil Registry (RC): https://transparencia.registrocivil.org.br/registros
In Brazil, the RC is the most up to date source of all-cause mortality. However, it is downward biased compared to the official final figures from SIM due to delayed registration.
In order to account for this, the monthly counts from the CR are corrected using the ratio between total deaths (up to October) in SIM 2020 (1,310,014) to total deaths in RC 2020 (1,213,027).
Weekly mortality counts were transformed to ISO-8601 weeks by using reference date.
StatCan has more up to date data than present in World Mortality, yet it is incomplete due to lack of reporting from Ontario (largest province). See: https://twitter.com/ArielKarlinsky/status/1383054708386959364/photo/1
Direct link to the latest table in Excel (April 2021): https://www.dane.gov.co/files/investigaciones/poblacion/defunciones-covid19/anexos-defunciones-covid-nal-2020-02mar-2021-11abr.xlsx Here we sum values in three categories: Natural, Violenta (Violent), and En estudio (unclassified deaths).
2020: Costa Rica Instituto Nacional De Estadística Y Censos (INEC) Defunciones 2020, el impacto de la enfermedad COVID-19 - DATOS PRELIMINARES: https://www.inec.cr/sites/default/files/documetos-biblioteca-virtual/repoblacdef2020covid-19preliminar.pdf
2015 - 2019: Oficina Nacional de Estadistica e Informacion (ONEI) Anuario Demográfico 2017 - 2019
2020: Cruz Castanheira, Monteiro da Silva, Del Popolo & Bay (2021), Table 3
2015 to 2016: https://aplicaciones3.ecuadorencifras.gob.ec/BIINEC-war/index.xhtml
2020 onward: https://www.registrocivil.gob.ec/cifrasdefuncion/
Direct link to the latest table in XLS:
Ecuador provides daily death counts. We summed them up to form weekly death counts.
We thank Andrés N. Robalino for providing us with 2015-2016 data.
2015 to 2019: http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?d=POP&f=tableCode%3a65%3bcountryCode%3a818&c=2,3,6,8,10,12,13,14&s=_countryEnglishNameOrderBy:asc,refYear:desc,areaCode:asc&v=1
2020: Monthly Bulletin of the Egyptian NSO (CAPMAS): https://www.capmas.gov.eg/Pages/Publications.aspx?page_id=5107&Year=23518 & Egypt in Figures 2021 - Vital: https://www.capmas.gov.eg/Pages/Publications.aspx?page_id=5104&Year=23595
Printed counts were taken as-is from the monthly plot. Other counts were digitized from the plot using WebPlotDigitizer.
2015-2020: Georgia National Office of Statistics (GEOSTAT): https://www.geostat.ge/en/modules/categories/320/deaths
Access by: Number of Deaths Per Month -> Download XLS file.
2015 onward: Gibraltar Broadcasting Corporation (GBC) public request from Government of Gibraltar Press Office https://www.gbc.gi/news/187-increase-deaths-january-compared-10-year-average
2015-2020: Statistics Greenland StatBank Deaths (monthly): https://bank.stat.gl/pxweb/en/Greenland/Greenland__BE__BE10__BE20/BEXBBDMD1.PX/
2015 to 2019: Guatemala Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE) Estadísticas Vitales https://www.ine.gob.gt/ine/vitales/ Access by: Base de datos, select appropriate year under Año and then select Defunciones.
2020: Public Information Request from Registro Nacional De Las Personas (RENAP).
RENAP information was obtained as daily deaths from January 1st 2020 to December 31st 2020, and aggregated to ISO year and week.
Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department:
2015 to 2018: https://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp160.jsp?productCode=FA100094
2019 to 2020: Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics, https://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp110.jsp?productCode=B1010002
Iran National Organization for Civil Registration: https://www.sabteahval.ir/avej/Page.aspx?mId=49826&ID=2182&Page=Magazines/SquareshowMagazine
The data are provided in Solar Hirji seasons (Spring, Summer, Autumn, Winter). Winter starts on Dec 22, so we count it as the next calendar year (e.g. Winter 1393 as the first entry for 2015).
2015 onward: Ireland Central Statistics Office (CSO) - Measuring Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2019-2021: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/fb/b-mpds/measuringmortalityusingpublicdatasources2019-2021/
2015 to 2018 are official monthly data from CSO, 2019 onward is from the above CSO study which crawls and corrects rip.ie for up-to-date death notices. Note that These figures are preliminary and might change.
Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics: https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/subjects/Pages/%D7%AA%D7%9E%D7%95%D7%AA%D7%94-%D7%95%D7%AA%D7%95%D7%97%D7%9C%D7%AA-%D7%97%D7%99%D7%99%D7%9D.aspx
Japanese Government Statistics Portal: https://www.e-stat.go.jp/stat-search/files?page=1&layout=datalist&toukei=00450011&kikan=00450&tstat=000001028897&cycle=1&tclass1=000001053058&tclass2=000001053059&tclass3val=0
Kazakhstan Bureau of National Statistics 2015 to 2018: Monthly Socio-Economic Development of the Republic of Kazakhstan: https://stat.gov.kz/edition/publication/month?lang=en
2019 to 2020: https://stat.gov.kz/official/industry/61/statistic/7
Direct link to Excel file: https://stat.gov.kz/api/getFile/?docId=ESTAT334793
Thanks to Noah Katz for culling Kazakhstan's data 2015 to 2018.
Thanks to Mikhail Zelenskiy for filling the gaps in 2016 and 2017.
2015 - 2020: Kosovo Agency of Statistics Quarterly Bulletin: https://ask.rks-gov.net/en/kosovo-agency-of-statistics/add-news/quarterly-bulletin-q4-2020
2015 - 2018: UNData: http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?d=POP&f=tableCode%3a65%3bcountryCode%3a417&c=2,3,6,8,10,12,13,14&s=_countryEnglishNameOrderBy:asc,refYear:desc,areaCode:asc&v=1
2019 onwards: National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic - The main results of natural population January - December 2020: http://www.stat.kg/kg/statistics/naselenie/
Liechtenstein Office for Statistics: https://www.llv.li/inhalt/118804/amtsstellen/sonderseite-covid-19
2020: Macao Special Administrative Region Statistics and Census Service Monthly Bulletin: https://www.dsec.gov.mo/en-US/Home/Publication/MonthlyBulletinOfStatistics
Department of Statistics Malaysia:
2015 to 2019: eStatistik: https://newss.statistics.gov.my/newss-portalx/ep/epProductFreeDownloadSearch.seam
Access by selecting: Main Category - Social, Sub-Category - Demography. Publication title is "Vital Statistics Malaysia".
2020: Demographic Statistics Quarterly 2020: https://www.dosm.gov.my/v1/index.php?r=column/ctwoByCat&parent_id=115&menu_id=L0pheU43NWJwRWVSZklWdzQ4TlhUUT09
2020: Email correspondence with Statistics Mauritius.
National Institute of Statistics, Geography and Informatics (INEGI) Mexico: 2015 - 2019: https://www.inegi.org.mx/programas/mortalidad/#Datos_abiertos
Mexican Ministry of Health Excess deaths database: 2020 onward: http://www.dgis.salud.gob.mx/contenidos/basesdedatos/da_exceso_mortalidad_mexico_gobmx.html and https://coronavirus.gob.mx/exceso-de-mortalidad-en-mexico/
2020: Moldova National Bureau of Statistics Quarterly Statistical Bulletin: https://statistica.gov.md/newsview.php?l=en&idc=30&id=6945&parent=0
2015 to 2019: Email correspondence with Monegasque Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (IMSEE).
2020 to 2021: https://www.imsee.mc/Publications/Rapports-COVID-19 digitized using WebPlotDigitizer.
2016 onward: Mongolian Statistical Information Service: http://www.1212.mn/tables.aspx?tbl_id=DT_NSO_2100_027V2&SOUM_select_all=0&SOUMSingleSelect=_0&YearM_select_all=0&YearMSingleSelect=_202011_202010_202009_202008_202007_202006_202005_202004_202003_202002_202001_202012&viewtype=table
2020: North Macedonia State Statistical Office Monthly Bulletin: https://www.stat.gov.mk/PrikaziPublikacija_1_en.aspx?rbr=831
2015 to 2019: Nicaragua Instituto Nacional de Información de Desarrollo (INIDE) Compendio de Estadísticas Vitales: https://www.inide.gob.ni/Home/Compendios
2020 July to August: http://mapasalud.minsa.gob.ni/
To obtain mortality counts for July and August, we used the MAPASALUD January-August count, and subtracted the January-June counts from the LALUPA source, assuming a uniform distrbution between July and August.
Oman National Center for Statistics and Information 2015 to 2018: Deaths and Births Statistical Bulletin: https://www.ncsi.gov.om/Elibrary/Pages/LibraryContentDetails.aspx?ItemID=L61grnjbbbpxeUKErBemkg%3d%3d
2019 to 2020: Monthly Bulletin: https://www.ncsi.gov.om/Elibrary/Pages/LibraryContentDetails.aspx?ItemID=MgTlAFqddgBeormy3YBZDg%3d%3d
Note: 2019 monthly death counts was smaller at 1020 deaths than total yearly mortality count (Shown in the January 2021 Monthly Bulletin). In order to account for this, all 2019 monthly data was increased by the mean monthly difference of 85. Final official monthly data for 2019 should be available by November 2021.
2019 to 2020: Email correspondence with Registro Civil - Tribunal Electoral.
Only 69 deaths were recorded in April 2020, this is probably due to disruption in the registry offices, similiary to Bolivia.
2015 to 2019: Paraguay Ministry of Health Sub-Sistema Informático de Estadísticas Vitales (SSIEV): http://ssiev.mspbs.gov.py/20170426/defuncion_reportes/ssiev321.php
2020: Email correspondence with General Directorate of Strategic Health Information (DIGIES).
Peruvian Ministry of Health - National Deaths Registration System (SINADEF): https://www.minsa.gob.pe/reunis/data/defunciones_registradas.asp
Peru provides daily death counts. We summed them up to form weekly death counts.
Philippines Statistics Authority: https://psa.gov.ph/vital-statistics/table
2020: Qatar Planning and Statistics Authority Monthly Statistics: https://www.psa.gov.qa/en/statistics1/pages/topicslisting.aspx?parent=General&child=QMS
https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/33556 (data available from 2006)
The latest month is published on rosstat.gov.ru first and it takes several days for the data to appear on fedstat.ru. The exact URL is always different. For November 2020, the URL is https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/ldMWepjj/edn11-2020.htm.
2015 to 2020: San Marino Office of Economic Planning, Data Processing and Statistics - Bulletin of Statistics: https://www.statistica.sm/on-line/en/home/publications/bulletin-of-statistics.html
2021: Natural movement of the resident population (monthly): https://www.statistica.sm/on-line/home/dati-statistici/popolazione.html#
Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia: https://www.stat.gov.rs/en-us/oblasti/stanovnistvo/rodjeni-i-umrli/
2015 onward: Email correspondence with Seychelles National Bureau of Statistics.
Department of Statistics Singapore: https://www.tablebuilder.singstat.gov.sg/publicfacing/createDataTable.action?refId=15167
South Africa Medical Research Council (SAMRC): https://www.samrc.ac.za/reports/report-weekly-deaths-south-africa
South African data is provided in an Epidemiological Week format, which run from Sunday to Saturday.
SAMRC does not publish weekly data for years before 2020. Instead, the 2018--2019 data were used by SAMRC to forecast expected weekly mortality using the Excel
Holt-Winters time series forecasting method in Excel function. We denote this forecast as
year = 0 in the data.
For additional details, refer to SAMRC (2021): METHODOLOGICAL NOTE: PREDICTED NUMBERS OF DEATHS BY EPI-WEEK FOR SOUTH AFRICA IN 2020 AND 2021, available at: https://www.samrc.ac.za/sites/default/files/files/2021-01-24/Methodological%20Note%20on%20Predicted%20Weekly%20Deaths%2020_Jan_2021.pdf
Statistics Sweden - Preliminary Statistics on Deaths (2015 onward, daily): https://scb.se/en/About-us/news-and-press-releases/follow-the-preliminary-statistics-on-deaths/
Note: Sweden has a significant number of deaths which occurred in an "unknown" date (and thus week) in all years. However, 95% these have a known month of death. In order to account for this, we have adjusted the daily number of deaths in Sweden by the difference between monthly deaths from daily deaths and total monthly deaths, and the residual with unknown month, distributed throughout the year. For example, the sum of daily deaths in April 2020 is 10376. The total monthly deaths in April 2020 is 10555, which yields a daily mean difference of 5.97 added to each day in April 2020. The 254 additional deaths in 2020 with unknown month, were distributed uniformly across months and then daily within each month. Thus, each day in April 2020 is increased by 6.67 deaths.
Weekly deaths in Sweden have been rounded to one significant digit to emphasize they were adjusted.
Taiwan Ministry of the Interior Monthly Bulletin of Interior Statistics: https://www.moi.gov.tw/english/cl.aspx?n=7665
Taiwan also has weekly data from STMF, but it is less updated, so we opted to keep the monthly data for now.
Tajikistan Agency on Statistics: 2015 to 2019: Demographic Yearbook of the Republic of Tajikistan 2021 (paper copy): https://www.stat.tj/en/news/publications/demographic-yearbook-of-the-republic-of-tajikistan
Monthly counts were aggregated to quarterly counts.
2020 Q1 to Q3: UNData MBS (as crude death rates): https://unstats.un.org/unsd/mbs/app/DataView.aspx?tid=3&cid=762&yearfrom=2020&yearto=2021&p=A Crude death rates were transformed to mortality counts by using the UNDATA Mid-Year Population estimate for Tajikistan 2020 which is 9,392,000.
2020Q4 was derived as the difference between total yearly deaths in 2020 (41743) and sum of 2020Q1-2020Q3.
We wish to thank the reporters from Eurasianet for providing us this information.
Transnistria State Statistics Service Statistical information bulletin: http://mer.gospmr.org/gosudarstvennaya-sluzhba-statistiki/informacziya/informaczionnyj-statisticheskij-byulleten.html
Social and economic development of the PMR: http://mer.gospmr.org/gosudarstvennaya-sluzhba-statistiki/informacziya/o-soczialno-ekonomicheskom-polozhenii-pmr.html
Tunisia National Institute of statistics Recent dynamics of mortality in Tunisia: http://www.ins.tn/publication/dynamique-recente-de-la-mortalite-en-tunisie
The data from the report's figure 1 was digitized using WebPlotDigitizer.
2015 - 2019: Uruguay Ministry of Public Health - Vital Statistics Generator.
2020: Cruz Castanheira, Monteiro da Silva, Del Popolo & Bay (2021), Table 3.
2015 onward: Official Statistics Registration Systems: https://stat.bora.dopa.go.th/stat/statnew/statMenu/newStat/home.php
2020: State Statistics Office of Ukraine: http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/
Access by: Statistical Information -> Population and migration -> Number of live births, deaths, by region
2019 data can be found following links from: http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/express/expr2020/expres_2020.html
2019 to 2020: Uzbekistan State Committee on Statistics - Demographic situation January - December (Direct link to PDF): https://www.stat.uz/images/uploads/docs/demografiya_uz_18012021.pdf
2015--2016: STMF, see above.
From 2017: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/xkkf-xrst/rows.csv
We use the 'predicted' (weighted) time series that accounts for underreporting in recent weeks. See https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm for more information.
We remove the last weeks (usually two) that are marked at https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html as being <90% complete.
Below are listed some sources that are currently not used for this dataset.
Ireland Central Statistics Office: https://data.cso.ie/table/VSQ01
The monthly numbers for Romania are not used because we prefer the weekly numbers from EuroStat.
The weekly figures for Uruguay are not used because the monthly numbers are much more up to date and have full historical data.
Uruguay Ministry of Public Health - Surveillance of all-cause mortality.
The report presents weekly deaths in 2020 and a forecast of expected deaths based on the median of weekly deaths in 2015-2019 up to week 30. The data from the report's figure 3 was digitized using WebPlotDigitizer.
this forecast is denoted as
year = 0 in the data.